Next Stop: Italy

On December 28, 2017, President Sergio Mattarella of Italy dissolved the Italian Parliament in preparation for the general election. Add Italy to the list of EU countries without a government.

On March 4, 2018, eligible Italian voters must go to the polls to cast their votes to elect 630 members of Chamber of Deputies and 315 elective members of the Senate of the Republic. Yes, voting is technically compulsory. It is written in article 48 of their constitution. But the repercussion for not voting is almost inexistent, something like not getting the best daycare for your children or something (but you still get a daycare anyway, just not the best).

It will also be the first time Italy test out their new election law, nicknamed Rosatellum. This new election law gives Italy’s bicameral parliament a uniformity when it comes to selecting representatives. Previously, the Chamber was elected with winner-take-all method and the Senate was elected with pure proportional system.

If I were an Italian I would get confused too.

So in December 2016, it was proposed that Italy just abolish the Senate altogether. It’s weird since universally Italians can vote when they turned 18 but have to wait until they turn 25 to vote for the Senate. So basically if you are a 19 year old you get one ballot and if you’re 26 you get two – I can’t grasp the concept either.

But this is Europe’s next crucial election.

Italy is EU’s 4th largest economy with €2.3 trillion debt (basically nothing compared to the United States’ USD 20 trillion debt, but it’s still a shitload of money). Along with the global rise of right wing populism, a coalition of rightwing parties assembled by Silvio Berlusconi comes second in the poll after anti-establishment Five Star Movement (they are neither left nor right).

Side note: This Silvio Berlusconi dude is insane. Like, really insane. He is a media tycoon with a long list of legal problems and controversies. He was also 4x Prime Minister of Italy. Now it gets you to really wonder how much power the media has on elections, eh?

Thankfully, even with Crazy B’s political comeback, almost 40% of Italians are still undecided, leaving room for candidates from more moderate parties to clinch parliamentary seats.

Nevertheless, issues such as immigration, Euro as a currency, corruption, and unemployment could give a boost to Berlusconi’s rightwing coalition.  To tackle this, B proposed to introduce a parallel currency for domestic use (so bye bye Euro), flat rate income tax, abolish inheritance, housing, and road tax (what a Republican move), implement a minimum €1,000 income, and of course, block all new immigrants from coming in.

I remember when I was campaigning for Student Government President in middle school, I promised bullshit like building a swimming pool even though we sat literally on top of each other in class. I also remember when Trump promised to build a wall along the US-Mexico border during the 2016 election. We all promise things we know are unachievable when we want to win people’s trust, don’t we?

Observers predict that this election will result in a hung parliament, which is when no particular party has an absolute majority. This means there is a chance that there will be an unstable left-right coalition (most probable Five Star Movement and another party) who are incapable of passing major legislation or pushing through the structural reforms desperately needed.

 

Sweet Home Alabama

I’m taking my eyes off international elections for one second to focus back on one particular US election. Last night, Doug Jones became the first Democrat in 25 years to be elected to represent Alabama in the US Senate

Let’s rewind to last month – nine women came forward with multiple sexual harassment allegations against Republican Roy Moore. They were between the age of 14 to 18, and very concerningly disgusting, he was in his 30s. With these allegations, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the NRSC called for his withdrawal from the race, but he persisted to stay. He was then backed up by Trump (surprise, surprise – ya know, birds of a feather flock together) basically saying that since he denied the allegations then it isn’t true. Then the RNC get on the Moore-Wagon.

It is indeed troubling to see that an alleged child molester was able to run for a federal seat in the United States. But then again, the United States Constitution grant every person presumption of innocence under the 5^th, 6^th, and 14^th amendments. In my opinion, this presumption of innocence can be advantageous or harmful depending on where you stand, but I guess the Founding Fathers wanted to ensure justice for all, eh?

Back to Alabama – Democrats saw the possibility of turning the deep red ‘Bama state purple (at least in the US Senate), and miraculously they did. How did they pull that in a state where Trump won almost 30 points?

1. This particular election marks one of the highest African American voters turnout in the history of Alabama

The State of Alabama has one of the worst voters laws ever i.e. voter suppression, most particularly black voters suppression, is prevalent and is still ongoing. One of the most memorable moments from my graduate school career at The George Washington University School of Political Management was taking the Louisiana Voter Literacy Test, to determine whether a Louisiana resident, who cannot prove a certain level of education, can vote. Keep in mind that at that time, USA was all about segregation, and it was usually black voters that were not able prove their level of education due to the school they went to. In case you were wondering, I failed, and I had a 34 on my ACT. Similar tests are conducted in the State of Alabama.

But that was decades ago! Sure, it was. But Alabama continues to exercise voter suppression targeted specifically to black voters. It was so bad that a voting rights non-profit, The Campaign Legal Center, sued the State of Alabama. In 2011, Alabama Republicans passed a Voter ID Law that requires every voter to have a photo ID in order to vote, BUT did not provide ways for free and affordable ID, even attempted (and successfully) shut down more than a few voting precincts and DMVs in Alabama’s predominantly black counties.

In general, voters turnouts, especially minority voters, are significantly lower in Midterms and special elections. So what made black voters so riled up to vote this election?

A little history lesson: in September 1963, four members of the Ku Klux Klan planted dynamites beneath the steps of the African American 16^th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, AL. Four African-American girls were killed in the bombing. The four perpetrators, who were all members of the KKK, were identified but the FBI closed the case 5 years later without filing any charges against them. Doug Jones was the prosecutor that brought justice to the victims and convicted two of the KKK members responsible for the attack.

Percentage-point lead in select groups. Washington Post. 12/12/2017.

2. People had it enough with Trump

I was literally looking at my screen for 5 minutes trying to figure out where to start with this point. I don’t know. He had done so many unpresidential things in the last 11 months that I don’t even know where to begin to list his wrongdoings. From his infamous tweeting to his treatment of others, he brings embarrassment to America all across the world and I think (and hope) that America realized they made a big oopsie and is coming back to the right path.

Trump openly endorsed Roy Moore (although he retracted his endorsement after learning about the embarrassing huge blow to his face that is the election result) and even defended Roy Moore when asked by a reporter if a child molester is better than a Democrat. He said, “Well, he denies it.”

3. Roy Moore is an alleged sexual predator

Probably the biggest factor of all. The allegations of these women that I mentioned at the beginning was what cracked into the red shell that is the state of Alabama. That, factored with the sexual harassment dominoes that have been collapsing one by one since Trump’s Hollywood Access tape came out.

Sexual misconduct has never been anywhere near acceptable in any culture in the world, and it is very relieving to see that a country, particularly a state, that voted for bigotry just over a year ago came to its senses. The wave of repulsion among Alabama voters only proves so.

So what now?

For Democrats, the US Senate is now in play for 2018. When I left the DSCC just about four months ago, I understood that while we worked to win majority, our main goal was to protect our seats. Now, we have the path to win majority and take back the Senate. Perhaps my best friend Chuck can be a Majority Leader comes 2018.

This does not mean that Democrats can be complacent. It was nothing less but a miracle to have turned the Alabama US Senate purple, but it was attributed to the three factors I mentioned above:

Point one can be achieved with systematic grassroots and voters contact strategies. This means that my grassroots organizers friends are facing more sleepless nights and long hours in the year ahead.

Point two was a card that was played for the Democrats – as long as Trump keeps getting more and more appalling, which I am not worried at all about, we gucci there.

As for point three, not every Republican will have such dirt, it was sheer luck that Moore is a repugnant human being and that many women have found their voices to come forward against their attackers.

So, hard work ahead for Democrats. And as for Republicans, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

 

 

It’s Not Over

In Germany, Election Day is only halfway to the finish line. As tradition goes, the second half of the task is to form a coalition government.

A few weeks after Wahltag, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP began exploratory talks to form a government. To anyone accustomed with two-party system like the United States, coalition may make no sense to them. I mean, the people has spoken, right? Well, in Germany coalition government is the norm and the country has not been ruled by a non-coalition government since 1963, with Chancellor Konrad Adenauer. But in 1963 it was a majority government. This time, Merkel’s party is only at 33%.

Within the political professionals’ community, there had been concerns since Election Day on whether the CDU/CSU can form a government due to the number of voters they lost from the last election. Now a little under two months later, Merkel and her party influence is noticeably declining.

With Christian Lindner and his party walking out of coalition talks last night, it is now up to President Frank-Walter Stenmeier to decide the future of the country. The President of Germany does not usually have this much power unless the country is “in times of governmental crises”. Is calling it a crisis extra? Maybe. But the fact that there is no government being formed would be potentially a crisis, oder? Honestly, I am normalized to everything right now because of the United States (read: Trump, but the other politicians are no better either – looking at you Al Franken, Roy Moore, and every politician who can’t be scandal-less) and for me, the benchmark of calling something a crisis has tremendously rose. I’m sure I’m not the only person feeling this way.

Very early this morning, Merkel addressed the nation and acknowledged that Germany is facing an uncertain political future for the first time in years. Also this morning, EUR against USD plummeted. So did Germany’s DAX index.

So what now?

The 18^th Bundestag is still in place and it is business as usual for Merkel’s cabinet.

And what’s next?

There are options.

Option 1: A minority government

Something unprecedented in Germany. This will require Members of Parliaments to vote for a chancellor – this option requires an absolute majority and MPs can vote several times until the criteria is met. However, if it is deadlocked, parties can propose their own candidates and the candidate with the most votes will become a chancellor without having to reach an absolute majority.

Option 2: A second election

Personally, this will be super interesting for me. Financially, logically, and for the sake of Germany’s role in the international arena, this should not be the option. In Germany, the state funds elections, so another election would put a dent in the country’s finances. As to how serious the dent is? Probably not serious but why burn money especially if another election may not change the result as much. Germany is a key (if not the main) player of the European Union. With Brexit and the European Parliament election coming up soon, it will not be the wisest of President Stenmeier to call for another election, and put Germany in a limbo in such crucial times. Also, someone needs to keep a check on the crazy screaming carrot across the pond. 

Option 3: Another Grand Coalition

The 18^th Bundestag was a Grand Coalition, where two large parties came together to form a government. This requires carefully structured cabinets and delegation of power. For example, the previous Grand Coalition let CDU/CSU hold the Chancellory and the SPD took most of cabinet posts. However this option had never been on the table since the Election, SPD has outwardly and firmly stated that they will not form a coalition with CDU/CSU. The CDU/CSU is seen as this behemoth that “swallows” any party they form coalition with – the FPD was completely wiped out after forming coalition with CDU/CSU in the 17^th Bundestag and SPD lost a significant amount of votes this election.

Option 4: FDP comes back

…and make the Jamaica coalition happened. After the Election results came out, Germany was only left with one good option, which is to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP. Sure, it was not the best option, considering how different their approaches to major policies, but with an alt-right party presence in the Bundestag, you got to take one for the team, Christian.

The Rising of the Right

Conservatism is a new trend across the globe, and this can be attributed to one person: Donald Trump. In the 2016 US election, the now President of the United States utilized xenophobia and hate speech to gain support from the “oppressed” white voters. To everyone’s surprise, it worked, and it became a trend experts call Trumpism. 

In Germany, a country relatively liberal compared to USA, conservatism has steadily become more and more popular after the refugee crisis. “There is no way a country as small as Germany can contain one million more people,” said a liberal German (SV, 51, is voting left, but shared her view on refugees). After Germany opened its door to refugees, Germans immediately felt the changes: they had to wait a longer time at clinics, DMVs, and other state operated services. While crime rate also rose, the number is not high enough for it to be attributed to refugee crisis.

Nevertheless, far right extremism has existed long before Trumpism emerged. Alt-right parties organized themselves and run every Bundestagswahl, although almost always failed. Recently, Alternatives für Deutschland (AfD),  a far-right anti-immigrant party, is gaining more and more popularity. AfD is predicted to win at least 10% of the votes (and as many as 50 parliamentary seats), putting them at a powerful enough position in the Bundestag. It is important to note that no far-right party has managed to send delegates to the Bundestag since the defeat of the Nazis in 1945.

Wait, so does this mean Germany as a country is moving to the right like the US did? Possibly. But like I said, far right extremism has existed long before the 2016 US Presidential election. Take the National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD), a right wing extremist party, had been established since 1964. Many Germans dub them as “the Nazis” due to their populist-nationalist ideology.

Then there is Die Rechte, or The Right, that was formed in 2012. And less importantly, Bürger in Wut (Citizens in Rage) that has been around since 2004 and represented in Bremen, German Social Union that was established in 1990, Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland (Pro Germany Citizens Movement) that was established in 2005. These parties are so minuscule that they are basically irrelevant; They had never managed to win enough votes on the federal level to cross Germany’s 5% minimum threshold to have representation in the Bundestag. However, in this particular election, their voices may matter for the first time and their members will vote for AfD. Remember, it is the first time since 1945 that a far right party has a chance to be represented in the Bundestag.

The base of AfD voters are similar to that of Trump’s: blue collared or unemployed middle-aged men who have growing concern about immigration and Islam. Interestingly, they populate the area with least immigrants, showing similar patterns with Trump’s support in the flyover states and the South.

In the past 12 years Merkel has been a Chancellor, CDU/CSU, the originally conservative party of Germany has been moving toward the left. Conservative voters thus found a hard time to continue voting for CDU/CSU, and they opt for the right wing alternative instead (Side note: maybe that’s where AfD got their name from??)

If AfD wins as predicted, and Merkel forms the same coalition with SPD, AfD will become the unofficial opposition party in the Bundestag. What does this mean for the world? A few more steps toward conservatism and nationalism. With Brexit in the United Kingdom, Trump in the United States, and Le Pen in France, how much can we afford the rise of the right in the stable and centrist Germany?