It’s Not Over

In Germany, Election Day is only halfway to the finish line. As tradition goes, the second half of the task is to form a coalition government.

A few weeks after Wahltag, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP began exploratory talks to form a government. To anyone accustomed with two-party system like the United States, coalition may make no sense to them. I mean, the people has spoken, right? Well, in Germany coalition government is the norm and the country has not been ruled by a non-coalition government since 1963, with Chancellor Konrad Adenauer. But in 1963 it was a majority government. This time, Merkel’s party is only at 33%.

Within the political professionals’ community, there had been concerns since Election Day on whether the CDU/CSU can form a government due to the number of voters they lost from the last election. Now a little under two months later, Merkel and her party influence is noticeably declining.

With Christian Lindner and his party walking out of coalition talks last night, it is now up to President Frank-Walter Stenmeier to decide the future of the country. The President of Germany does not usually have this much power unless the country is “in times of governmental crises”. Is calling it a crisis extra? Maybe. But the fact that there is no government being formed would be potentially a crisis, oder? Honestly, I am normalized to everything right now because of the United States (read: Trump, but the other politicians are no better either – looking at you Al Franken, Roy Moore, and every politician who can’t be scandal-less) and for me, the benchmark of calling something a crisis has tremendously rose. I’m sure I’m not the only person feeling this way.

Very early this morning, Merkel addressed the nation and acknowledged that Germany is facing an uncertain political future for the first time in years. Also this morning, EUR against USD plummeted. So did Germany’s DAX index.

So what now?

The 18^th Bundestag is still in place and it is business as usual for Merkel’s cabinet.

And what’s next?

There are options.

Option 1: A minority government

Something unprecedented in Germany. This will require Members of Parliaments to vote for a chancellor – this option requires an absolute majority and MPs can vote several times until the criteria is met. However, if it is deadlocked, parties can propose their own candidates and the candidate with the most votes will become a chancellor without having to reach an absolute majority.

Option 2: A second election

Personally, this will be super interesting for me. Financially, logically, and for the sake of Germany’s role in the international arena, this should not be the option. In Germany, the state funds elections, so another election would put a dent in the country’s finances. As to how serious the dent is? Probably not serious but why burn money especially if another election may not change the result as much. Germany is a key (if not the main) player of the European Union. With Brexit and the European Parliament election coming up soon, it will not be the wisest of President Stenmeier to call for another election, and put Germany in a limbo in such crucial times. Also, someone needs to keep a check on the crazy screaming carrot across the pond. 

Option 3: Another Grand Coalition

The 18^th Bundestag was a Grand Coalition, where two large parties came together to form a government. This requires carefully structured cabinets and delegation of power. For example, the previous Grand Coalition let CDU/CSU hold the Chancellory and the SPD took most of cabinet posts. However this option had never been on the table since the Election, SPD has outwardly and firmly stated that they will not form a coalition with CDU/CSU. The CDU/CSU is seen as this behemoth that “swallows” any party they form coalition with – the FPD was completely wiped out after forming coalition with CDU/CSU in the 17^th Bundestag and SPD lost a significant amount of votes this election.

Option 4: FDP comes back

…and make the Jamaica coalition happened. After the Election results came out, Germany was only left with one good option, which is to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP. Sure, it was not the best option, considering how different their approaches to major policies, but with an alt-right party presence in the Bundestag, you got to take one for the team, Christian.

The Rising of the Right

Conservatism is a new trend across the globe, and this can be attributed to one person: Donald Trump. In the 2016 US election, the now President of the United States utilized xenophobia and hate speech to gain support from the “oppressed” white voters. To everyone’s surprise, it worked, and it became a trend experts call Trumpism. 

In Germany, a country relatively liberal compared to USA, conservatism has steadily become more and more popular after the refugee crisis. “There is no way a country as small as Germany can contain one million more people,” said a liberal German (SV, 51, is voting left, but shared her view on refugees). After Germany opened its door to refugees, Germans immediately felt the changes: they had to wait a longer time at clinics, DMVs, and other state operated services. While crime rate also rose, the number is not high enough for it to be attributed to refugee crisis.

Nevertheless, far right extremism has existed long before Trumpism emerged. Alt-right parties organized themselves and run every Bundestagswahl, although almost always failed. Recently, Alternatives für Deutschland (AfD),  a far-right anti-immigrant party, is gaining more and more popularity. AfD is predicted to win at least 10% of the votes (and as many as 50 parliamentary seats), putting them at a powerful enough position in the Bundestag. It is important to note that no far-right party has managed to send delegates to the Bundestag since the defeat of the Nazis in 1945.

Wait, so does this mean Germany as a country is moving to the right like the US did? Possibly. But like I said, far right extremism has existed long before the 2016 US Presidential election. Take the National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD), a right wing extremist party, had been established since 1964. Many Germans dub them as “the Nazis” due to their populist-nationalist ideology.

Then there is Die Rechte, or The Right, that was formed in 2012. And less importantly, Bürger in Wut (Citizens in Rage) that has been around since 2004 and represented in Bremen, German Social Union that was established in 1990, Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland (Pro Germany Citizens Movement) that was established in 2005. These parties are so minuscule that they are basically irrelevant; They had never managed to win enough votes on the federal level to cross Germany’s 5% minimum threshold to have representation in the Bundestag. However, in this particular election, their voices may matter for the first time and their members will vote for AfD. Remember, it is the first time since 1945 that a far right party has a chance to be represented in the Bundestag.

The base of AfD voters are similar to that of Trump’s: blue collared or unemployed middle-aged men who have growing concern about immigration and Islam. Interestingly, they populate the area with least immigrants, showing similar patterns with Trump’s support in the flyover states and the South.

In the past 12 years Merkel has been a Chancellor, CDU/CSU, the originally conservative party of Germany has been moving toward the left. Conservative voters thus found a hard time to continue voting for CDU/CSU, and they opt for the right wing alternative instead (Side note: maybe that’s where AfD got their name from??)

If AfD wins as predicted, and Merkel forms the same coalition with SPD, AfD will become the unofficial opposition party in the Bundestag. What does this mean for the world? A few more steps toward conservatism and nationalism. With Brexit in the United Kingdom, Trump in the United States, and Le Pen in France, how much can we afford the rise of the right in the stable and centrist Germany?

Köln: Stadt Met K – a week before voting day

The weekend before Election Day, I decided to leave Berlin and see how other parts of Germany is acknowledging the election. Since I have not been to West Germany, I decided to visit Cologne.

In my previous post, I have made a point that German election is much tamer and quieter compared to the US one, by a lot. (Side note: a friend of mine, a German, actually argued that low key elections are better for the country; those elections are more straightforward, efficient, and economical – the campaign professional in me begs to differ). So I came to Cologne with a very low expectation of seeing anything political/election related, you know, with it being so far away from the Capital and it not having any political reputation.

Oh boy, was I wrong.

I first saw some political presence in Chlodwig Platz; Reissdorf Kölsch, one of the many beer breweries in Cologne was having a street festival. CDU, SPD, the Green Party, and MLPD (Marxist Lenninist Party of Germany) had stands set up right at the entrance to the street festival.

SPD Stand at Chlodwig Platz. Cologne, Germany. 9/16/2017.

Party members and volunteers were talking to interested voters and giving out free “swags”. These stands brought me back to the few festivals in Ohio where my team and I set up stands to register voters, and talk to them about getting involved in the campaign. One thing that stood up the most, the conversations between these volunteers and voters were mostly about ideology; instead of focusing in turning voters into grassroots volunteers, they are more focused on making sure that their party messages are conveyed correctly. But then again, grassroots in Germany is not as intense as it is in the United States and the way the parties are set up in Germany does not require random recruitment of supporters.

Unlike Berlin, there were not that many “yard signs” in Cologne. However, parties presence was certainly heavier, and the people’s attitude toward the election is more positive. My friend whom I was staying with explained that is how Cologne is; the people in Cologne are a lot more receptive and open toward new ideas whereas in Berlin, a city of hipster, being apolitical is a “cool” thing, hence political talks and presence are overshadowed by the arts and flavor of the city. This, I still can’t wrap my head around – Berlin is the capital city after all.

In the City Center’s U-bahn station, Angela Merkel’s face on CDU’s newest Erfolgreich für Deutschland campaign is plastered all over.

CDU campaign: Erfolgreich für Deutschland. Source: CDU.de

Right outside, I ran into the first FDP grassroots effort that I have seen since I got to Germany, which is a rather large stand that surprisingly draws more crowd than any of the other stands I saw earlier at Chlodwig Platz. Does being in a City Center with a lot more people help? Perhaps. But FDP also has more support in West Germany, so it is no surprise that their stand is relatively more crowded than the other parties’.

FDP Stand. Cologne, Germany. 9/16/2017.

Bars were also promoting their election night parties, some as a joke, the other more serious. Regardless, they are celebrating election night, something that I have not seen in Berlin (again, despite it being the capital). I think I need to lower my expectation for Berlin in terms of really experiencing the election’s atmosphere. Maybe then, Berlin can surprise me like the City with K did.

 

 

There is an election?: Berlin a week before voting day

Exactly one year ago, I was working for the US presidential election in the most crucial state of all: Ohio. As an organizer, my main responsibility was to do voters outreach (yes, I was one of those annoying people who called you non-stop and went to your door 4x in the last week before the election – but I did that because you had not voted). Being in the field, I received so many feedback that we were smothering the voters to the point that they felt harassed. The point is, voters know that there is an election.

Voters in Germany also know that there is an election, but the coverage is minimal compared to the US Presidential election.

The media… Daily front page would be of election, but there are only 3+ million stories about the German election, compared to 48+ million for the US election (source: Google News)

The people… Perhaps it’s just a Berlin thing, but being the capital city of Germany, politics is such a rare topic here. However, I believe it’s not due to the German culture. Sure, Americans are more passionate about their politics but Germans can be too. Last year, a few Berliners came up to me to talk about the US election after hearing my American accent. In contrast, it takes me a few minutes talking with Berliners before they mention anything about their own election.

Yard signs… First, I must say that if you were an organizer stateside, A) God bless you as you have succeeded in completing possibly the most difficult job on the face of this earth B) I share your hatred and frustration toward yard signs. In Germany, there is no yard signs but street signs.

Street signs outside of an U-Bahn Station. Berlin, Germany. 9/12/17

Every neighborhood in Berlin is pretty much plastered with these signs, with FPD showing the least presence, even in West Berlin, where they gather the most supports. These street signs set the mood and inform non-Germans or whoever unaware of the election that there will be an election and the respective parties’ messages. As for the effectiveness of these signs? I think Germans have made up their minds.

Digital campaigning… So apparently there are digital campaigning efforts from the parties. As a non-German, I had not been targeted myself (Although I have changed my current location to Berlin on both Facebook and Twitter, and been getting targeted ads from local businesses/events). But some Berliners I talked to also have not gotten any digital outreach.

Broadcast…  You don’t see a lot of TV ads in Germany but that is not entirely the parties’ fault. Each party is allotted a certain amount of airtime on the two public TV networks, ZDF and ARD, based on their vote share in the last election and the number of members in their party. This means major parties such as the CDU and the SPD gets more air time than the smaller parties. In the last election CDU and SPD run their ads 8 times while the other smaller parties run theirs 4 times. Of course, if the party has more money, they can buy more advertisement slots, but since political finances here are very straight forward and Super PACs are inexistent, the campaign budgets are rather limited.

Grassroots movement… One thing about Germany, they are big on protecting the people’s privacy and personal data. Therefore, the grassroots movement here are limited to random door-to-door or standing by a crowded place (fleamarkets, train stations, etc) and handing out campaign literatures. Side note: Yes, American organizers, they randomly knock on doors and making sure people go to vote – I share your horror. 

TV Debate – You may have heard of the TV Duell between Chancellor Angela Merkel and her opponent, Markus Schulz. Rather than heated debate, it was more of a polite exchange, and sometimes disagreement, of ideas on immigration, economy, North Korea, and not surprisingly, Donald Trump. This debate shows how close Merkel and Schulz are on the political spectrum and critics have dubbed the #TvDuell as #TvDuet

Why is it so boring?

It has a lot to do with where the Chancellor is on the poll. While there is a strict regulation that parliamentary staffers and campaign staffers are not to do each other’s jobs, being the Chancellor, Merkel and her team have more power in determining how lively she wants this election to be. She is currently leading comfortably, so what’s the point in creating instability? Just yesterday, Merkel straight up rejected Schulz’ request to have a second debate.

The Chancellor is playing her card right. Germans love stability and that is what she can offer now, especially with how volatile the international political current is. I can see that, and Germans voters can see that too.

The Players

Name: CDU/CSU, known better (and unofficially) as the Union party

Leader: Chancellor Angela Merkel

Ideology: Liberal Conservatism

Stance: Pro-EU

Number of Seats on the current Bundestag: 310/630

Name: Social Democratic Party (SPD)

Leader: Martin Schulz

Ideology: Social Democracy

Stance: Pro-Europianism

Number of Seats on the current Bundestag: 193/630

Name: Die Linke or The Left

Leaders: Sahra Wagenknecht & Dietmar Bartsch

Ideology: Democratic Socialism/Left-wing populism

Stance: Anti-capitalism and anti-militarism

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 64/630

**Note: Former East German populist party

Name: Alliance 90/The Green Party

Leaders: Simone Peter and Cem Özdemir

Ideology: Green politics and progressive

Stance: Environmentalism

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 63/630

Name: Free Democratic Party (FDP)

Leader: Christian Lindner

Ideology: Classical liberalism

Stance: Pro-business

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 0

Name: Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Leaders: Alice Weidel & Alexander Gauland

Ideology: Nationalism/Right-wing populism

Stance: Anti-immigration/anti-Europe

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 0

Support for the parties

In the United States, the coasts are predominantly supportive of Democrats and the center and south are predominantly supportive of Republicans. In Germany, similar patterns are seen throughout the country, based off the former division between the East and West.*

* Quick history lesson: after World War II, Germany is divided into 4 territories occupied by France, the UK, the US, and Soviet Union. The allies (sans France) met up 4 years later in 1949 in Potsdam and divided Germany into two countries: Federal Republic of Germany (former western sectors zone territories), and German Democratic Republic (former Soviet Zone).

A helpful chart found on FiveThirtyEight shows the support of each party nationwide (based of the 2013 election).

• CDU support is overwhelming in Southern Germany, a traditionally conservative area. Their sister party, CSU, “rules” Bavaria.
• SPD support is consistent in the Northwest Germany, as is CDU.
• Die Linke (The Left) has most support in the former East Germany
• The Greens, an environmentalist and progressive party, has most support in around Freiburg, an environmentally conscious area of Germany.
• FDP, who is pro business, gain most support in former West Berlin, and West Germany, territories that are industrial driven.

Die Bundestagswahl 2017: An Overview

In September 24, 2017, all German citizens over the age of 18 will have the chance to exercise their right to vote in the German Federal Election, or Bundestagwahl. The Election will elect Members of Parliament – and the party with most members in the Parliament, or the Bundestag, will be able to choose a Chancellor. This method of election is due to German’s parliamentary system.

Parliamentary System 101

The parliamentary system is a system of democratic governance where the executive branch derives from the legislative branch. So, if the United States does not have an executive branch, in other words, let’s pretend the White House and the President does not exist, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan would be the head of the government. Parliamentary system is the dominant form of government in Europe, as well as in countries that were British colonies (think Canada and Australia).

There is a distinction between the Head of State and the Head of Government in a parliamentary system. The Head of Government has the power and responsibility to run the country, but of course with the approval of his or her cabinet and the members of parliament (check and balances is really a tremendous system). The Head of State, in the other hand, has a ceremonial role in the government. His or her role legitimizes the government and functions as a unifier of the state.

In the context of Germany, the Head of Government is Chancellor Angela Merkel, also the leader of Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party with the most seats in the Bundestag. The Head of State is President Frank-Walter Stenmeier, who is affiliated to the Social Democratic Party (SPD).

So what are Germans voting for on September 24?

Easy answer: Members of Parliament (MPs)

More thorough answer: Each eligible German voter will get a chance to cast two votes: one for a candidate, and one for a political party.

The candidates votes will be counted simply, whoever gets the most votes in one district would be declared the winner and be sent to Berlin as the representative of the district he or she won. These candidates will fill half of the Bundestag’s absolute minimum 598 seats or the first 299 seats.

The party vote is where it gets tricky. The other 299 seats are allocated to party lists in Germany’s 16 Länder (or states). And how are these seats allocated? It’s based of the percentage of the second votes received nationwide (but not including parties that receive less than 5% of votes nationwide). The percentage of MPs that are elected through the second vote are directly proportionate to the number of votes the party receives nationwide. This way, extremist parties will be kept out of the Bundestag.

The number of seats in the parliament may increase during the process of allocating the seats. This is known as overhang seats and additional balance seats. But how many overhang seats and balance seats do they need? By determining what is the minimum number of seats from each party in the state on the federal level. Each state’s minimum number is calculated based of their first votes (the votes for their candidates) and their second votes (the votes for the party list). The higher of these two figures is the party’s minimum number of seats in that particular state. Still with me? The last step is to add together the minimum number of party seats in all 16 German states. And that is how you determine the number of seats a party is entitled in the Bundestag.

Cheat Sheet (or how I would explain it to my mother):

Step 1. You have two votes

Step 2. You use your two votes to pick a candidate and a political party

Step 3. The candidate that receives the most vote from the first votes gets sent to Berlin as a Member of Parliament. Since there are 299 districts in Germany, 299 MPs will be elected this way.

Step 4. The second votes are counted and the parties get to sent X number of MPs affiliated to their parties depending on how much votes they get. But parties with lesser than 5% of the votes don’t get to send no one. Sorry.

Step 5. The number of minimum party representative from each state is calculated by determining the higher of the two total votes (remember the two votes each German get?). If your party is deemed to be needing more seats than it already sent, then additional balance seats are added and your party gets to send more MPs to the Bundestag.

Why so complicated?

Easy answer: So the party won’t be underrepresented.

More complicated (but thorough) answer: To ensure the seats in the Bundestag are distributed to the parties in line with their national share of the second votes and that no party receives fewer than its guaranteed minimum number of seats. They are also necessary to ensure that each party requires roughly the same number of second votes per seat.

Finally, to help you understand it better…

The 18th Bundestag

Total seats: 631

Seats breakdown

Minimum number of seats in the Parliament: 598

Overhang seats: 4 (to CDU, because the party won more constituency seats than it would have been entitled to based on its share of the second votes)

Balance seats: 28 to ensure the relative strengths of the parties in Parliament continue to reflect the share of second votes won. And are awarded as such

• CDU: 13
• SPD: 10
• Green: 2
• Die Linke: 2