Almost Done

Good morning from Berlin! The sun is shining today and so is Angela Merkel’s day.

Maybe.

Yesterday, CDU and SPD finally came to an agreement and reached a deal to form a coalition government, an option that SPD already said no to last September. Thanks to narcissistic FDP poster boy  Christian Lindner of FDP, the Jamaica Coallition that was planned (CDU, FDP, and the Greens) was no longer possible and SPD had to step up to prevent Germany from being government-less.

Oh yeah, Germany has not had a proper government since September. And it still doesn’t.

SPD members need to vote on whether or not they are in with another Grand Coalition for 4 years before they can seal the deal. Sounds easy since the party leaders have spoken right? Uh uh. SPD has been split since Schulz agree to form coalition with CDU. Half of the party want nothing to do with CDU anymore because historically (and also happened last term i.e. SPD experienced it first hand) any party in coalition with CDU became inexistent or got significantly smaller. The other half of the party want to get this done and over with and prevent AfD from gaining more momentum. Anyway, the deadline is in less than a month, March 4.

Until then, Germany will have a few more weeks of political limbo. Not so good with how tumultuous the international political arena with (again) emotionally unstable cheeto across the pond, dissolved parliamentary in Italy in preparation for the general election, and of course the good ol’ Kim.

But hey, at least there is an acting government working at the moment. Unlike the US government shutdown. Until then, we sit, wait, and hope for more better days like today in Berlin.

It’s Not Over

In Germany, Election Day is only halfway to the finish line. As tradition goes, the second half of the task is to form a coalition government.

A few weeks after Wahltag, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP began exploratory talks to form a government. To anyone accustomed with two-party system like the United States, coalition may make no sense to them. I mean, the people has spoken, right? Well, in Germany coalition government is the norm and the country has not been ruled by a non-coalition government since 1963, with Chancellor Konrad Adenauer. But in 1963 it was a majority government. This time, Merkel’s party is only at 33%.

Within the political professionals’ community, there had been concerns since Election Day on whether the CDU/CSU can form a government due to the number of voters they lost from the last election. Now a little under two months later, Merkel and her party influence is noticeably declining.

With Christian Lindner and his party walking out of coalition talks last night, it is now up to President Frank-Walter Stenmeier to decide the future of the country. The President of Germany does not usually have this much power unless the country is “in times of governmental crises”. Is calling it a crisis extra? Maybe. But the fact that there is no government being formed would be potentially a crisis, oder? Honestly, I am normalized to everything right now because of the United States (read: Trump, but the other politicians are no better either – looking at you Al Franken, Roy Moore, and every politician who can’t be scandal-less) and for me, the benchmark of calling something a crisis has tremendously rose. I’m sure I’m not the only person feeling this way.

Very early this morning, Merkel addressed the nation and acknowledged that Germany is facing an uncertain political future for the first time in years. Also this morning, EUR against USD plummeted. So did Germany’s DAX index.

So what now?

The 18^th Bundestag is still in place and it is business as usual for Merkel’s cabinet.

And what’s next?

There are options.

Option 1: A minority government

Something unprecedented in Germany. This will require Members of Parliaments to vote for a chancellor – this option requires an absolute majority and MPs can vote several times until the criteria is met. However, if it is deadlocked, parties can propose their own candidates and the candidate with the most votes will become a chancellor without having to reach an absolute majority.

Option 2: A second election

Personally, this will be super interesting for me. Financially, logically, and for the sake of Germany’s role in the international arena, this should not be the option. In Germany, the state funds elections, so another election would put a dent in the country’s finances. As to how serious the dent is? Probably not serious but why burn money especially if another election may not change the result as much. Germany is a key (if not the main) player of the European Union. With Brexit and the European Parliament election coming up soon, it will not be the wisest of President Stenmeier to call for another election, and put Germany in a limbo in such crucial times. Also, someone needs to keep a check on the crazy screaming carrot across the pond. 

Option 3: Another Grand Coalition

The 18^th Bundestag was a Grand Coalition, where two large parties came together to form a government. This requires carefully structured cabinets and delegation of power. For example, the previous Grand Coalition let CDU/CSU hold the Chancellory and the SPD took most of cabinet posts. However this option had never been on the table since the Election, SPD has outwardly and firmly stated that they will not form a coalition with CDU/CSU. The CDU/CSU is seen as this behemoth that “swallows” any party they form coalition with – the FPD was completely wiped out after forming coalition with CDU/CSU in the 17^th Bundestag and SPD lost a significant amount of votes this election.

Option 4: FDP comes back

…and make the Jamaica coalition happened. After the Election results came out, Germany was only left with one good option, which is to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP. Sure, it was not the best option, considering how different their approaches to major policies, but with an alt-right party presence in the Bundestag, you got to take one for the team, Christian.

The Rising of the Right

Conservatism is a new trend across the globe, and this can be attributed to one person: Donald Trump. In the 2016 US election, the now President of the United States utilized xenophobia and hate speech to gain support from the “oppressed” white voters. To everyone’s surprise, it worked, and it became a trend experts call Trumpism. 

In Germany, a country relatively liberal compared to USA, conservatism has steadily become more and more popular after the refugee crisis. “There is no way a country as small as Germany can contain one million more people,” said a liberal German (SV, 51, is voting left, but shared her view on refugees). After Germany opened its door to refugees, Germans immediately felt the changes: they had to wait a longer time at clinics, DMVs, and other state operated services. While crime rate also rose, the number is not high enough for it to be attributed to refugee crisis.

Nevertheless, far right extremism has existed long before Trumpism emerged. Alt-right parties organized themselves and run every Bundestagswahl, although almost always failed. Recently, Alternatives für Deutschland (AfD),  a far-right anti-immigrant party, is gaining more and more popularity. AfD is predicted to win at least 10% of the votes (and as many as 50 parliamentary seats), putting them at a powerful enough position in the Bundestag. It is important to note that no far-right party has managed to send delegates to the Bundestag since the defeat of the Nazis in 1945.

Wait, so does this mean Germany as a country is moving to the right like the US did? Possibly. But like I said, far right extremism has existed long before the 2016 US Presidential election. Take the National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD), a right wing extremist party, had been established since 1964. Many Germans dub them as “the Nazis” due to their populist-nationalist ideology.

Then there is Die Rechte, or The Right, that was formed in 2012. And less importantly, Bürger in Wut (Citizens in Rage) that has been around since 2004 and represented in Bremen, German Social Union that was established in 1990, Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland (Pro Germany Citizens Movement) that was established in 2005. These parties are so minuscule that they are basically irrelevant; They had never managed to win enough votes on the federal level to cross Germany’s 5% minimum threshold to have representation in the Bundestag. However, in this particular election, their voices may matter for the first time and their members will vote for AfD. Remember, it is the first time since 1945 that a far right party has a chance to be represented in the Bundestag.

The base of AfD voters are similar to that of Trump’s: blue collared or unemployed middle-aged men who have growing concern about immigration and Islam. Interestingly, they populate the area with least immigrants, showing similar patterns with Trump’s support in the flyover states and the South.

In the past 12 years Merkel has been a Chancellor, CDU/CSU, the originally conservative party of Germany has been moving toward the left. Conservative voters thus found a hard time to continue voting for CDU/CSU, and they opt for the right wing alternative instead (Side note: maybe that’s where AfD got their name from??)

If AfD wins as predicted, and Merkel forms the same coalition with SPD, AfD will become the unofficial opposition party in the Bundestag. What does this mean for the world? A few more steps toward conservatism and nationalism. With Brexit in the United Kingdom, Trump in the United States, and Le Pen in France, how much can we afford the rise of the right in the stable and centrist Germany?

Köln: Stadt Met K – a week before voting day

The weekend before Election Day, I decided to leave Berlin and see how other parts of Germany is acknowledging the election. Since I have not been to West Germany, I decided to visit Cologne.

In my previous post, I have made a point that German election is much tamer and quieter compared to the US one, by a lot. (Side note: a friend of mine, a German, actually argued that low key elections are better for the country; those elections are more straightforward, efficient, and economical – the campaign professional in me begs to differ). So I came to Cologne with a very low expectation of seeing anything political/election related, you know, with it being so far away from the Capital and it not having any political reputation.

Oh boy, was I wrong.

I first saw some political presence in Chlodwig Platz; Reissdorf Kölsch, one of the many beer breweries in Cologne was having a street festival. CDU, SPD, the Green Party, and MLPD (Marxist Lenninist Party of Germany) had stands set up right at the entrance to the street festival.

SPD Stand at Chlodwig Platz. Cologne, Germany. 9/16/2017.

Party members and volunteers were talking to interested voters and giving out free “swags”. These stands brought me back to the few festivals in Ohio where my team and I set up stands to register voters, and talk to them about getting involved in the campaign. One thing that stood up the most, the conversations between these volunteers and voters were mostly about ideology; instead of focusing in turning voters into grassroots volunteers, they are more focused on making sure that their party messages are conveyed correctly. But then again, grassroots in Germany is not as intense as it is in the United States and the way the parties are set up in Germany does not require random recruitment of supporters.

Unlike Berlin, there were not that many “yard signs” in Cologne. However, parties presence was certainly heavier, and the people’s attitude toward the election is more positive. My friend whom I was staying with explained that is how Cologne is; the people in Cologne are a lot more receptive and open toward new ideas whereas in Berlin, a city of hipster, being apolitical is a “cool” thing, hence political talks and presence are overshadowed by the arts and flavor of the city. This, I still can’t wrap my head around – Berlin is the capital city after all.

In the City Center’s U-bahn station, Angela Merkel’s face on CDU’s newest Erfolgreich für Deutschland campaign is plastered all over.

CDU campaign: Erfolgreich für Deutschland. Source: CDU.de

Right outside, I ran into the first FDP grassroots effort that I have seen since I got to Germany, which is a rather large stand that surprisingly draws more crowd than any of the other stands I saw earlier at Chlodwig Platz. Does being in a City Center with a lot more people help? Perhaps. But FDP also has more support in West Germany, so it is no surprise that their stand is relatively more crowded than the other parties’.

FDP Stand. Cologne, Germany. 9/16/2017.

Bars were also promoting their election night parties, some as a joke, the other more serious. Regardless, they are celebrating election night, something that I have not seen in Berlin (again, despite it being the capital). I think I need to lower my expectation for Berlin in terms of really experiencing the election’s atmosphere. Maybe then, Berlin can surprise me like the City with K did.

 

 

The Players

Name: CDU/CSU, known better (and unofficially) as the Union party

Leader: Chancellor Angela Merkel

Ideology: Liberal Conservatism

Stance: Pro-EU

Number of Seats on the current Bundestag: 310/630

Name: Social Democratic Party (SPD)

Leader: Martin Schulz

Ideology: Social Democracy

Stance: Pro-Europianism

Number of Seats on the current Bundestag: 193/630

Name: Die Linke or The Left

Leaders: Sahra Wagenknecht & Dietmar Bartsch

Ideology: Democratic Socialism/Left-wing populism

Stance: Anti-capitalism and anti-militarism

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 64/630

**Note: Former East German populist party

Name: Alliance 90/The Green Party

Leaders: Simone Peter and Cem Özdemir

Ideology: Green politics and progressive

Stance: Environmentalism

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 63/630

Name: Free Democratic Party (FDP)

Leader: Christian Lindner

Ideology: Classical liberalism

Stance: Pro-business

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 0

Name: Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Leaders: Alice Weidel & Alexander Gauland

Ideology: Nationalism/Right-wing populism

Stance: Anti-immigration/anti-Europe

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 0

Support for the parties

In the United States, the coasts are predominantly supportive of Democrats and the center and south are predominantly supportive of Republicans. In Germany, similar patterns are seen throughout the country, based off the former division between the East and West.*

* Quick history lesson: after World War II, Germany is divided into 4 territories occupied by France, the UK, the US, and Soviet Union. The allies (sans France) met up 4 years later in 1949 in Potsdam and divided Germany into two countries: Federal Republic of Germany (former western sectors zone territories), and German Democratic Republic (former Soviet Zone).

A helpful chart found on FiveThirtyEight shows the support of each party nationwide (based of the 2013 election).

• CDU support is overwhelming in Southern Germany, a traditionally conservative area. Their sister party, CSU, “rules” Bavaria.
• SPD support is consistent in the Northwest Germany, as is CDU.
• Die Linke (The Left) has most support in the former East Germany
• The Greens, an environmentalist and progressive party, has most support in around Freiburg, an environmentally conscious area of Germany.
• FDP, who is pro business, gain most support in former West Berlin, and West Germany, territories that are industrial driven.