Next Stop: Italy

On December 28, 2017, President Sergio Mattarella of Italy dissolved the Italian Parliament in preparation for the general election. Add Italy to the list of EU countries without a government.

On March 4, 2018, eligible Italian voters must go to the polls to cast their votes to elect 630 members of Chamber of Deputies and 315 elective members of the Senate of the Republic. Yes, voting is technically compulsory. It is written in article 48 of their constitution. But the repercussion for not voting is almost inexistent, something like not getting the best daycare for your children or something (but you still get a daycare anyway, just not the best).

It will also be the first time Italy test out their new election law, nicknamed Rosatellum. This new election law gives Italy’s bicameral parliament a uniformity when it comes to selecting representatives. Previously, the Chamber was elected with winner-take-all method and the Senate was elected with pure proportional system.

If I were an Italian I would get confused too.

So in December 2016, it was proposed that Italy just abolish the Senate altogether. It’s weird since universally Italians can vote when they turned 18 but have to wait until they turn 25 to vote for the Senate. So basically if you are a 19 year old you get one ballot and if you’re 26 you get two – I can’t grasp the concept either.

But this is Europe’s next crucial election.

Italy is EU’s 4th largest economy with €2.3 trillion debt (basically nothing compared to the United States’ USD 20 trillion debt, but it’s still a shitload of money). Along with the global rise of right wing populism, a coalition of rightwing parties assembled by Silvio Berlusconi comes second in the poll after anti-establishment Five Star Movement (they are neither left nor right).

Side note: This Silvio Berlusconi dude is insane. Like, really insane. He is a media tycoon with a long list of legal problems and controversies. He was also 4x Prime Minister of Italy. Now it gets you to really wonder how much power the media has on elections, eh?

Thankfully, even with Crazy B’s political comeback, almost 40% of Italians are still undecided, leaving room for candidates from more moderate parties to clinch parliamentary seats.

Nevertheless, issues such as immigration, Euro as a currency, corruption, and unemployment could give a boost to Berlusconi’s rightwing coalition.  To tackle this, B proposed to introduce a parallel currency for domestic use (so bye bye Euro), flat rate income tax, abolish inheritance, housing, and road tax (what a Republican move), implement a minimum €1,000 income, and of course, block all new immigrants from coming in.

I remember when I was campaigning for Student Government President in middle school, I promised bullshit like building a swimming pool even though we sat literally on top of each other in class. I also remember when Trump promised to build a wall along the US-Mexico border during the 2016 election. We all promise things we know are unachievable when we want to win people’s trust, don’t we?

Observers predict that this election will result in a hung parliament, which is when no particular party has an absolute majority. This means there is a chance that there will be an unstable left-right coalition (most probable Five Star Movement and another party) who are incapable of passing major legislation or pushing through the structural reforms desperately needed.

 

Almost Done

Good morning from Berlin! The sun is shining today and so is Angela Merkel’s day.

Maybe.

Yesterday, CDU and SPD finally came to an agreement and reached a deal to form a coalition government, an option that SPD already said no to last September. Thanks to narcissistic FDP poster boy  Christian Lindner of FDP, the Jamaica Coallition that was planned (CDU, FDP, and the Greens) was no longer possible and SPD had to step up to prevent Germany from being government-less.

Oh yeah, Germany has not had a proper government since September. And it still doesn’t.

SPD members need to vote on whether or not they are in with another Grand Coalition for 4 years before they can seal the deal. Sounds easy since the party leaders have spoken right? Uh uh. SPD has been split since Schulz agree to form coalition with CDU. Half of the party want nothing to do with CDU anymore because historically (and also happened last term i.e. SPD experienced it first hand) any party in coalition with CDU became inexistent or got significantly smaller. The other half of the party want to get this done and over with and prevent AfD from gaining more momentum. Anyway, the deadline is in less than a month, March 4.

Until then, Germany will have a few more weeks of political limbo. Not so good with how tumultuous the international political arena with (again) emotionally unstable cheeto across the pond, dissolved parliamentary in Italy in preparation for the general election, and of course the good ol’ Kim.

But hey, at least there is an acting government working at the moment. Unlike the US government shutdown. Until then, we sit, wait, and hope for more better days like today in Berlin.

It’s Not Over

In Germany, Election Day is only halfway to the finish line. As tradition goes, the second half of the task is to form a coalition government.

A few weeks after Wahltag, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP began exploratory talks to form a government. To anyone accustomed with two-party system like the United States, coalition may make no sense to them. I mean, the people has spoken, right? Well, in Germany coalition government is the norm and the country has not been ruled by a non-coalition government since 1963, with Chancellor Konrad Adenauer. But in 1963 it was a majority government. This time, Merkel’s party is only at 33%.

Within the political professionals’ community, there had been concerns since Election Day on whether the CDU/CSU can form a government due to the number of voters they lost from the last election. Now a little under two months later, Merkel and her party influence is noticeably declining.

With Christian Lindner and his party walking out of coalition talks last night, it is now up to President Frank-Walter Stenmeier to decide the future of the country. The President of Germany does not usually have this much power unless the country is “in times of governmental crises”. Is calling it a crisis extra? Maybe. But the fact that there is no government being formed would be potentially a crisis, oder? Honestly, I am normalized to everything right now because of the United States (read: Trump, but the other politicians are no better either – looking at you Al Franken, Roy Moore, and every politician who can’t be scandal-less) and for me, the benchmark of calling something a crisis has tremendously rose. I’m sure I’m not the only person feeling this way.

Very early this morning, Merkel addressed the nation and acknowledged that Germany is facing an uncertain political future for the first time in years. Also this morning, EUR against USD plummeted. So did Germany’s DAX index.

So what now?

The 18^th Bundestag is still in place and it is business as usual for Merkel’s cabinet.

And what’s next?

There are options.

Option 1: A minority government

Something unprecedented in Germany. This will require Members of Parliaments to vote for a chancellor – this option requires an absolute majority and MPs can vote several times until the criteria is met. However, if it is deadlocked, parties can propose their own candidates and the candidate with the most votes will become a chancellor without having to reach an absolute majority.

Option 2: A second election

Personally, this will be super interesting for me. Financially, logically, and for the sake of Germany’s role in the international arena, this should not be the option. In Germany, the state funds elections, so another election would put a dent in the country’s finances. As to how serious the dent is? Probably not serious but why burn money especially if another election may not change the result as much. Germany is a key (if not the main) player of the European Union. With Brexit and the European Parliament election coming up soon, it will not be the wisest of President Stenmeier to call for another election, and put Germany in a limbo in such crucial times. Also, someone needs to keep a check on the crazy screaming carrot across the pond. 

Option 3: Another Grand Coalition

The 18^th Bundestag was a Grand Coalition, where two large parties came together to form a government. This requires carefully structured cabinets and delegation of power. For example, the previous Grand Coalition let CDU/CSU hold the Chancellory and the SPD took most of cabinet posts. However this option had never been on the table since the Election, SPD has outwardly and firmly stated that they will not form a coalition with CDU/CSU. The CDU/CSU is seen as this behemoth that “swallows” any party they form coalition with – the FPD was completely wiped out after forming coalition with CDU/CSU in the 17^th Bundestag and SPD lost a significant amount of votes this election.

Option 4: FDP comes back

…and make the Jamaica coalition happened. After the Election results came out, Germany was only left with one good option, which is to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP. Sure, it was not the best option, considering how different their approaches to major policies, but with an alt-right party presence in the Bundestag, you got to take one for the team, Christian.

The Players

Name: CDU/CSU, known better (and unofficially) as the Union party

Leader: Chancellor Angela Merkel

Ideology: Liberal Conservatism

Stance: Pro-EU

Number of Seats on the current Bundestag: 310/630

Name: Social Democratic Party (SPD)

Leader: Martin Schulz

Ideology: Social Democracy

Stance: Pro-Europianism

Number of Seats on the current Bundestag: 193/630

Name: Die Linke or The Left

Leaders: Sahra Wagenknecht & Dietmar Bartsch

Ideology: Democratic Socialism/Left-wing populism

Stance: Anti-capitalism and anti-militarism

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 64/630

**Note: Former East German populist party

Name: Alliance 90/The Green Party

Leaders: Simone Peter and Cem Özdemir

Ideology: Green politics and progressive

Stance: Environmentalism

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 63/630

Name: Free Democratic Party (FDP)

Leader: Christian Lindner

Ideology: Classical liberalism

Stance: Pro-business

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 0

Name: Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Leaders: Alice Weidel & Alexander Gauland

Ideology: Nationalism/Right-wing populism

Stance: Anti-immigration/anti-Europe

Number of seats on the current Bundestag: 0

Support for the parties

In the United States, the coasts are predominantly supportive of Democrats and the center and south are predominantly supportive of Republicans. In Germany, similar patterns are seen throughout the country, based off the former division between the East and West.*

* Quick history lesson: after World War II, Germany is divided into 4 territories occupied by France, the UK, the US, and Soviet Union. The allies (sans France) met up 4 years later in 1949 in Potsdam and divided Germany into two countries: Federal Republic of Germany (former western sectors zone territories), and German Democratic Republic (former Soviet Zone).

A helpful chart found on FiveThirtyEight shows the support of each party nationwide (based of the 2013 election).

• CDU support is overwhelming in Southern Germany, a traditionally conservative area. Their sister party, CSU, “rules” Bavaria.
• SPD support is consistent in the Northwest Germany, as is CDU.
• Die Linke (The Left) has most support in the former East Germany
• The Greens, an environmentalist and progressive party, has most support in around Freiburg, an environmentally conscious area of Germany.
• FDP, who is pro business, gain most support in former West Berlin, and West Germany, territories that are industrial driven.